Flights and Trains Canceled as Storm Heads to Northeast

Richard Perry/The New York Times

In Jersey City, Jose Angelo, left, helped Isauro Palacios, a contractor from Belleville, N.J., as he loaded a new snow blower into the back of his truck Thursday as a snowstorm approached the region.

As heavy, wet snow started to blanket much of the Northeast on Friday morning, people rushed to stores to stock up on supplies, drivers lined up at gas stations to fill their tanks and local authorities from New York City to Maine started working to battle what forecasters said could be the biggest blizzard for some cities in a century.

National Weather Service

A satellite image taken at 10:15 p.m. Eastern time Thursday. Areas in blue indicate colder cloud tops or deeper cloud cover. The system over the Midwest and the system spread across the East are expected to merge on Friday.

Throughout the night and into the morning airlines announced the suspension of thousands of flights out of New York and Boston airports , as thousands of workers readied their plows, checked their stocks of salt and braced for what will most likely be a cold and busy weekend. Amtrak announced that it would suspend northbound service out of Penn Station in New York and southbound service out of Boston beginning early Friday afternoon.

Schools across New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island announced they would close, or dismiss students early on Friday.

On Long Island, where some forecasts said there could be more than 18 inches of snow, the power company, which has received heavy criticism for its response to Hurricane Sandy, promised customers that they were prepared.

The city of Boston, where forecasts called for more than two feet of snow to fall by Saturday, announced that it would close all schools on Friday, joining other localities in trying to get ahead of the storm and keep people off the roads.

“We are taking this storm very seriously and you should take this storm very seriously,” said Jerome Hauer, the New York State Commissioner of the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, at an afternoon news conference.

“If you don’t have to go to work tomorrow, we suggest that you do not,” he said. “If you do, we suggest that you plan for an early departure.”

The latest forecasts, he said, called for between 12 and 20 inches of snow in the New York City region and wind gusts that could exceed 60 miles per hour.

However, with the storm still some distance away, forecasters warned that predictions could change. The first sign of the storm will be a dusting of light snow that is expected to start falling across the region Friday morning.

At some point Friday night, the arctic jet stream will drop down from Canada and intersect with the polar jet stream, which usually travels through the lower 48 states.

“They will cross somewhere between New Jersey and Nantucket,” said Tim Morrin, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service. “That is where the center of the storm will deepen and explosively develop.”

If the current models hold, the storm could rival the blizzard of 1978 in New England, when more than 27 inches of snow fell in Boston and surrounding cities. That storm, which occurred on a weekday, resulted in dozens of deaths and crippled the region for days.

Peter Judge, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, said more than 20 agencies had gathered at the agency’s operations center in Framingham, Mass., where they were preparing for a historic storm.

“From our perspective, this is a very severe, blizzard-type storm that we haven’t had for quite a long time,” Mr. Judge said. “Worst-case scenario, this will be the worst one that we’ve dealt with in many, many years. I can’t even come up with something comparable.”

Officials prepared for debris management, snow removal and supplies distribution, he said, as well as widespread power failures, which he said were the major concern. “People will lose their heat when they lose their power, and they’re certainly much more in harm’s way than at other times of the year,” he said.

Boston was bracing for the worst of the storm to hit between 2 and 5 p.m. Friday. Gov. Deval Patrick, who called the pending storm “a serious weather event,” has ordered all nonemergency personnel to work from home Friday and encouraged private employers to keep their workers home.

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Alicia Keys, Bobby Brown perform at Will.i.am show

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fergie may have been absent — but the Black Eyed Peas were joined by another female diva onstage: Alicia Keys.

Keys sang "Where Is the Love" with the pop-rap group at will.i.am's charity event Thursday night at The Avalon Hollywood in Los Angeles. British singer Estelle also sang Fergie's portion of "The Time (Dirty Bit)."

Will.i.am's TRANS4M benefit show — which assists his i.am.angel foundation — also featured Bobby Brown and Ludacris, who both earned roaring cheers from the crowd of several hundred.

Will.i.am. said at the end of the evening that he raised $3.3 million.

"We're having fun, but we're also collecting funds," he told the crowd.

Will.i.am introduced Grammy-winning Keys to the audience saying: "Are you ready for a strong woman?"

The R&B singer performed "Girl on Fire" and "Try Sleeping With a Broken Heart."

Brown sang his jams "Every Little Step" and "Tenderoni." He performed at the same event in 2011, as will.i.am and Taboo of the Peas worked as his background dancers. They did the same Thursday night.

He told will.i.am in between his set that he was proud of the musician and his charity work.

The Peas closed the night with the massive hit "I Gotta Feeling."

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Online:

http://iamangelfoundation.org .

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Follow Mesfin Fekadu on twitter.com/MusicMesfin

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The New Old Age Blog: The Executor's Assistant

I’m serving as executor for my father’s estate, a role few of us are prepared for until we’re playing it, so I was grateful when the mail brought “The American Bar Association Guide to Wills and Estates” — the fourth edition of a handbook the A.B.A. began publishing in 1995.

This is a legal universe, I’m learning, in which every step — even with a small, simple estate that owes no taxes and includes no real estate or trusts — turns out to be at least 30 percent more complicated than expected.

If my dad had been wealthy or owned a business, or if we faced a challenge to his will, I would have turned the whole matter over to an estate lawyer by now. But even then, it would be helpful to know what the lawyer was talking about. The A.B.A. guide would help.

Written with surprising clarity (hey, they’re lawyers), it maps out all kinds of questions and decisions to consider and explains the many ways to leave property to one’s heirs. Updated from the third edition in 2009, the guide not only talks taxes and trusts, but also offers counsel for same-sex couples and unconventional families.

If you want to permit your second husband to live in the family home until he dies, but then guarantee that the house reverts to the children of your first marriage, the guide tells you how a “life estate” works. It explains what is taxable and what isn’t, and discusses how to choose executors and trustees. It lists lots of resources and concludes with an estate-planning checklist.

In general, the A.B.A. intends its guide for the person trying to put his or her affairs in order, more than for family members trying to figure out how to proceed after someone has died. But many of us will play both these parts at some point (and if you are already an executor, or have been, please tell us how that has gone, and mention your state). We’ll need this information.

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Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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Chinese Imports and Exports Soar in January

HONG KONG — January trade data from China on Friday showed a surge in exports and imports from the levels of a year earlier — a phenomenon largely due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday but also supporting the view that the Chinese economy is firming up.

Economic data from China are often severely distorted by the holiday, when many factories shut down for a week or more.

The holiday this year takes place in February — the first day of the Lunar New Year is Sunday. Last year it fell squarely in January, cutting down on the number of working days during that month.

The trade data released Friday reflected this with a large increase, compared with the year before, as analysts had expected. Exports climbed 25 percent from January 2012, according to the General Administration of Customs, and imports rose 28.8 percent.

The increases were much lower when adjusted for the holiday-induced differences in the number of working days, with exports up 12.4 percent and imports just 3.4 percent higher.

Still, the data beat expectations by a wide margin, supporting the view that healthier domestic and overseas demand also had been significant.

“This strong export number cannot be fully explained by the Chinese New Year effect alone,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said in a research note. “These data suggest that external and domestic demand are both strong, which supports our view that the economy is on track for a cyclical recovery” in the first half of this year, he added.

Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Crédit Agricole in Hong Kong, said, “We need to wait for February results to have the full picture of trade at the start of 2013.” However, he added, “one trend is clear: exports have been doing very well recently. This may be a sign of improved external demand but is also a testimony to the resilience of Chinese exporters and to their competitiveness.”

Improved overseas demand and a string of government-mandated stimulus measures have gradually propped up growth and dispelled fears of a hard landing in China. While the Chinese economy expanded just 7.8 percent last year — down from 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010 — many analysts expect growth to top 8 percent again in 2013.

Central bank data Friday that showed ample money had continued to flood into the economy also supported this view. Banks extended 1.07 trillion renminbi, or $172 billion, in new loans during January, more than analysts had expected. Total “social financing aggregate” in the economy, a broad measure of liquidity, or the ease of trading assets, more than doubled from a year earlier, to 2.54 trillion renminbi.

That figure, Mr. Kowalczyk commented, was a “blowout number.”

Like other data released Friday, the financing figure was lifted by the Lunar New Year effects, but even without these, Mr. Kowalczyk said, it was a “huge amount of funding” and would sustain solid economic growth in the near term at least.

Longer term, he cautioned, it would also “stoke inflationary pressures,” and could lead the central bank to tighten monetary policy further down the line as it seeks to stave off inflationary pressures.

For now, inflation remains benign. Consumer prices rose just 2 percent in January from a year earlier, a moderation from the 2.5 percent year-on-year increase in December. The low inflation number, released Friday, was in line with forecasts, but analysts widely expect a rebound in February.

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European Central Bank Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its main interest rate unchanged at its current record low Thursday, as expected, amid signs that the euro zone economy could be crawling out of recession.

The E.C.B. left its main rate at 0.75 percent, where it has been since July. Recent surveys of business sentiment have raised expectations that the euro zone could be slowly recovering, although there is also concern that the rising value of the euro against the dollar could undercut the fragile gains.

Recent data have supported the E.C.B. view that the euro zone will emerge from recession later this year. New orders to German industry rose 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

But the recovery is threatened by the rising value of the common currency, which could hurt exports by making euro zone products more expensive for foreign buyers. In recent weeks, the euro has risen substantially against the dollar, to the highest levels in a year.

Few analysts had expected the E.C.B. to shift its monetary policy Thursday. Some predict that the benchmark rate could stay at its present level for an extended period as the euro zone slowly returns to growth.

“We expect interest rates to be on hold at 0.75 percent until 2017 and only significant changes in the economic environment would trigger a change one way or the other,” Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to the consulting firm Ernst & Young, said in an e-mail before the decision.

Although there was no change in rates, the E.C.B. news conference later Thursday afternoon could prove eventful. Mario Draghi, the E.C.B. president, is likely to face questions about whether the bank will respond to the appreciation of the euro, which was up again midday Thursday, to nearly $1.36. Back in July it was trading just above $1.21.

A stronger euro means that products ranging from cars to wine become more expensive abroad, putting European producers at a disadvantage to foreign competitors.

Analysts do not expect Mr. Draghi to take steps to devalue the euro, but he could remind his counterparts at other central banks outside the euro zone of their promise not to start a currency war. If the value of one currency goes up, another currency must come down, making exchange-rate manipulation by central banks a zero-sum game that economists believe is counterproductive.

Mr. Draghi is also likely to face numerous questions about problems at the Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which has required a €3.9 billion bailout by the Italian government. Mr. Draghi was governor of the Bank of Italy, responsible for bank supervision, during the period when Monte dei Paschi was getting in trouble several years ago.

Mr. Draghi’s supporters have pointed out that there was a deliberate attempt by that bank’s previous management to conceal the extent of their losses, and that the Bank of Italy did not have the authority to prevent Monte dei Paschi managers from making foolish decisions. Part of the bank’s problems stem from its acquisition of regional bank Antonveneta in 2008 for €9 billion, a price considered much too high even at the time.

But at the very least, the case of Monte dei Paschi has illustrated the limits of bank supervision, and called into question whether the E.C.B. will be able to do a better job than national supervisors when it begins assuming supreme regulatory authority over banks in the course of this year.

The problems at Monti dei Paschi bank have also been exploited by Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister of Italy, as he attempts a comeback in elections at the end of this month. Mr. Berlusconi has run a populist campaign promising to undo some of the economic changes made by his successor, Mario Monti.

Italian politics aside, international investors are concerned about the new jitters the debacle could create in euro zone bond markets, which have calmed considerably lately.

“A government may well be formed on a platform that rejects some, if not most, of the Monti government’s fiscal reforms,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “As uncertainty grows, the bond markets are becoming increasingly unsettled.”

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Selena Gomez works the front row at Neo show

NEW YORK (AP) — Selena Gomez sat front and center at the fashion show to preview the first collection in her collaboration with Adidas' streetwear Neo label.

But the runway at Wednesday evening's show was a next-gen catwalk: Teenager bloggers were charged with styling the outfits instead of industry professionals.

Gomez thanked them as she stood on stage at the end of the show. She was flanked by models in denim shorts, Bermudas, slouchy sweats and T-shirts that read "Pirate Love." There were a few graffiti prints sprinkled in, and some varsity jackets.

The clothes, mostly in sunny yellow, bright pink and navy, were more surf than sport, which is Adidas' normal niche.

The show was very briefly interrupted by a protester trying to hand out leaflets about sweatshops.

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Well: Think Like a Doctor: A Confused and Terrified Patient

The Challenge: Can you solve the mystery of a middle-aged man recovering from a serious illness who suddenly becomes frightened and confused?

Every month the Diagnosis column of The New York Times Magazine asks Well readers to sift through a difficult case and solve a diagnostic riddle. Below you will find a summary of a case involving a 55-year-old man well on his way to recovering from a series of illnesses when he suddenly becomes confused and paranoid. I will provide you with the main medical notes, labs and imaging results available to the doctor who made the diagnosis.

The first reader to figure out this case will get a signed copy of my book, “Every Patient Tells a Story,” along with the satisfaction of knowing you solved a case of Sherlockian complexity. Good luck.

The Presenting Problem:

A 55-year-old man who is recovering from a devastating injury in a rehabilitation facility suddenly becomes confused, frightened and paranoid.

The Patient’s Story:

The patient, who was recovering from a terrible injury and was too weak to walk, had been found on the floor of his room at the extended care facility, raving that there were people out to get him. He was taken to the emergency room at the Waterbury Hospital in Connecticut, where he was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection and admitted to the hospital for treatment. Doctors thought his delirium was caused by the infection, but after 24 hours, despite receiving the appropriate antibiotics, the patient remained disoriented and frightened.

A Sister’s Visit:

The man’s sister came to visit him on his second day in the hospital. As she walked into the room she was immediately struck by her brother’s distress.

“Get me out of here!” the man shouted from his hospital bed. “They are coming to get me. I gotta get out of here!”

His blue eyes darted from side to side as if searching for his would-be attackers. His arms and legs shook with fear. He looked terrified.

For the past few months, the man had been in and out of the hospital, but he had been getting better — at least he had been improving the last time his sister saw him, the week before. She hurried into the bustling hallway and found a nurse. “What the hell is going on with my brother?” she demanded.

A Long Series of Illnesses:

Three months earlier, the patient had been admitted to that same hospital with delirium tremens. After years of alcohol abuse, he had suddenly stopped drinking a couple of days before, and his body was wracked by the sudden loss of the chemical he had become addicted to. He’d spent an entire week in the hospital but finally recovered. He was sent home, but he didn’t stay there for long.

The following week, when his sister hadn’t heard from him for a couple of days, she forced her way into his home. There she found him, unconscious, in the basement, at the bottom of his staircase. He had fallen, and it looked as if he may have been there for two, possibly three, days. He was close to death. Indeed, in the ambulance on the way to the hospital, his heart had stopped. Rapid action by the E.M.T.’s brought his heart back to life, and he made it to the hospital.

There the extent of the damage became clear. The man’s kidneys had stopped working, and his body chemistry was completely out of whack. He had a severe concussion. And he’d had a heart attack.

He remained in the intensive care unit for nearly three weeks, and in the hospital another two weeks. Even after these weeks of care and recovery, the toll of his injury was terrible. His kidneys were not working, so he required dialysis three times a week. He had needed a machine to help him breathe for so long that he now had to get oxygen through a hole that had been cut into his throat. His arms and legs were so weak that he could not even lift them, and because he was unable even to swallow, he had to be fed through a tube that went directly into his stomach.

Finally, after five weeks in the hospital, he was well enough to be moved to a short-term rehabilitation hospital to complete the long road to recovery. But he was still far from healthy. The laughing, swaggering, Harley-riding man his sister had known until that terrible fall seemed a distant memory, though she saw that he was slowly getting better. He had even started to smile and make jokes. He was confident, he had told her, that with a lot of hard work he could get back to normal. So was she; she knew he was tough.

Back to the Hospital:

The patient had been at the rehab facility for just over two weeks when the staff noticed a sudden change in him. He had stopped smiling and was no longer making jokes. Instead, he talked about people that no one else could see. And he was worried that they wanted to harm him. When he remained confused for a second day, they sent him to the emergency room.

You can see the records from that E.R. visit here.

The man told the E.R. doctor that he knew he was having hallucinations. He thought they had started when he had begun taking a pill to help him sleep a couple of days earlier. It seemed a reasonable explanation, since the medication was known to cause delirium in some people. The hospital psychiatrist took him off that medication and sent him back to rehab that evening with a different sleeping pill.

Back to the Hospital, Again:

Two days later, the patient was back in the emergency room. He was still seeing things that weren’t there, but now he was quite confused as well. He knew his name but couldn’t remember what day or month it was, or even what year. And he had no idea where he was, or where he had just come from.

When the medical team saw the patient after he had been admitted, he was unable to provide any useful medical history. His medical records outlined his earlier hospitalizations, and records from the nursing home filled in additional details. The patient had a history of high blood pressure, depression and alcoholism. He was on a long list of medications. And he had been confused for the past several days.

On examination, he had no fever, although a couple of hours earlier his temperature had been 100.0 degrees. His heart was racing, and his blood pressure was sky high. His arms and legs were weak and swollen. His legs were shaking, and his reflexes were very brisk. Indeed, when his ankle was flexed suddenly, it continued to jerk back and forth on its own three or four times before stopping, a phenomenon known as clonus.

His labs were unchanged from the previous visit except for his urine, which showed signs of a serious infection. A CT scan of the brain was unremarkable, as was a chest X-ray. He was started on an intravenous antibiotic to treat the infection. The thinking was that perhaps the infection was causing the patient’s confusion.

You can see the notes from that second hospital visit here.

His sister had come to visit him the next day, when he was as confused as he had ever been. He was now trembling all over and looked scared to death, terrified. He was certain he was being pursued.

That is when she confronted the nurse, demanding to know what was going on with her brother. The nurse didn’t know. No one did. His urinary tract infection was being treated with antibiotics, but he continued to have a rapid heart rate and elevated blood pressure, along with terrifying hallucinations.

Solving the Mystery:

Can you figure out why this man was so confused and tremulous? I have provided you with all the data available to the doctor who made the diagnosis. The case is not easy — that is why it is here. I’ll post the answer on Friday.

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Rules and Regulations: Post your questions and diagnosis in the comments section below.. The correct answer will appear Friday on Well. The winner will be contacted. Reader comments may also appear in a coming issue of The New York Times Magazine.

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DealBook: Ireland to Liquidate Anglo Irish Bank

LONDON – The Irish government passed emergency legislation on Thursday to liquidate Anglo Irish Bank, one of the country’s largest financial institutions.

The legislation, which was signed into law after an all-night parliamentary session, came after negotiations with the European Central Bank over swapping so-called promissory notes, which were used to bail out the Irish lender in 2009, for long-term government bonds.

The move is an effort to reduce Ireland’s debt repayments at a time when the country is still struggling under a cloud of austerity measures and meager economic growth.

The Irish Parliament rushed through the legislation to liquidate Anglo Irish, which was renamed Irish Bank Resolution Corporation after its failure and bailout, because details of the debt-restructuring plan leaked on Wednesday. Politicians had hoped to announce the deal after agreeing on new terms with the European Central Bank.

“I would have preferred to be introducing this bill in tandem with a finalized agreement with the European Central Bank,” the Irish finance minister, Michael Noonan, said in a statement.

The European Central Bank is considering the country’s latest proposals on Thursday, though European policy makers are concerned that a deal with Ireland could set a precedent for other indebted countries, like Spain, whose local banks also are facing mountains of debt.

As part of the deal to save Anglo Irish, Dublin injected more than 30 billion euros ($41 billion) into the local lender, of which around 28 billion euros is still outstanding.

The bailout has saddled the government with 3.1 billion euros in annual interest payments, or roughly the same amount Irish politicians have said they would cut in yearly government spending to reduce the country’s debt levels. The local government has been eager to reduce that multibillion-euro figure by swapping the high-interest debt into long-term government bonds that can be repaid over a longer period.

Ireland racked up huge debts in bailing out Anglo Irish and the rest of the country’s financial industry, eventually requiring a rescue package of 67.5 billion euros from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in 2010. The authorities have demanded that Irish politicians slash government spending to reduce the country’s debt burden.

Confusion reigned on Thursday at Anglo Irish’s headquarters in Dublin, a day after employees were sent home early in preparation for the government-mandated liquidation.

Some staff members had returned to work, but the atmosphere remained tense, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

“People have been told it’s business as usual, but it’s anything but that,” the person said.

The accounting firm KPMG has been appointed to oversee the liquidation.

Under the terms of the liquidation, Anglo Irish’s assets will be transferred to the National Asset Management Agency, the so-called bad bank set up by the government, or sold to outside investors.

Anglo Irish has been at the center of controversy since the beginning of the financial crisis. Three of its former executives, including its former chief executive, Sean FitzPatrick, are facing fraud charges in connection with loans that were improperly administered.

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Postal Service to Cut Saturday Mail to Trim Costs

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Postal Service will stop delivering mail on Saturdays but continue to deliver packages six days a week under a plan aimed at saving about $2 billion, the financially struggling agency says.

In an announcement scheduled for later Wednesday, the service is expected to say the Saturday mail cutback would begin in August.

The move accentuates one of the agency's strong points — package delivery has increased by 14 percent since 2010, officials say, while the delivery of letters and other mail has declined with the increasing use of email and other Internet use.

Under the new plan, mail would still be delivered to post office boxes on Saturdays. Post offices now open on Saturdays would remain open on Saturdays.

Over the past several years, the Postal Service has advocated shifting to a five-day delivery schedule for mail and packages — and it repeatedly but unsuccessfully appealed to Congress to approve the move. Though an independent agency, the service gets no tax dollars for its day-to-day operations but is subject to congressional control.

It was not immediately clear how the service could eliminate Saturday mail without congressional approval.

But the agency clearly thinks it has a majority of the American public on its side regarding the change.

Material prepared for the Wednesday press conference by Patrick R. Donahoe, postmaster general and CEO, says Postal Service market research and other research has indicated that nearly 7 in 10 Americans support the switch to five-day delivery as a way for the Postal Service to reduce costs.

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Disney working on stand-alone 'Star Wars' films

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Disney is mining The Force for even more new films.

Walt Disney Co. CEO Bob Iger said Tuesday that screenwriters Larry Kasdan and Simon Kinberg are working on stand-alone "Star Wars" movies that aren't part of the new trilogy that's in the works.

"There has been speculation about some standalone films that have been in development, and I can confirm to you today that in fact we are working on a few stand-alone films," Iger told CNBC.

Iger said the movies would be based on "great 'Star Wars' characters that are not part of the overall saga." The films would be released during the six-year period of the new trilogy, which starts in 2015 with "Star Wars: Episode VII."

Disney confirmed last month that "Star Trek" director J.J. Abrams will direct the seventh installment of the "Star Wars" saga.

Disney bought "Star Wars" maker Lucasfilm last year for more than $4 billion.

The last "Star Wars" trilogy, a prequel to the original films, was released from 1999 to 2005.

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Online:

http://www.starwars.com/

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